The Stoics had a technique called “Premeditatio Malorum” – the Latin phrase translates to “the premeditation of evil”, They would envision negative things that could happen, and by doing so, they believed they could make better plans to avoid or prevent them from happening. Thus, thinking about worst-case scenarios and planning for them can be a beneficial strategic exercise.
Far from being a pessimistic exercise, this approach serves as a practical tool for developing mental strength, strategic planning, and emotional stability in both personal and professional contexts. It prepares people for life's setbacks and can help with ground fears. It can also help people identify challenges and remember that they have resources to overcome them.
The idea is not to dwell on negativity but to be ready for it, thus diminishing its power over us. This concept is closely related to "Inversion Thinking", a problem-solving approach that emphasizes identifying obstacles to success and planning strategies to avoid them.
Charlie Munger made this philosophy of the Stoics famous through his quip, “Avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance”; in other words, instead of striving for victory, focus on avoiding defeat.
Inversion thinking comes more easily to humans because of evolution, too. The human tendency towards negativity can be traced back to our evolutionary history. As humans evolved, they faced the constant challenge of living in a hostile environment, necessitating a constant state of preparation. Thus, they developed better skills in detecting threats rather than seeing opportunities. Indeed, it's plausible that early humans identified opportunities as they sought to mitigate the threat they had identified. One of the classic examples of human threat detection evolution is the improvement in females' sense of smell when they are gestating. Nature understood that once the baby was in the womb and even after delivery, it would hinder the mother's mobility and agility. Additionally, human sight and hearing can be limited due to various conditions, such as noise or absence of light; therefore, the next best way to equip the mother was to heighten the sense of smell so that threats can be detected and the mother can plan mitigation strategies.
Thus, inverting one's thinking can transform complex problems into clear solutions. The natural management of anxiety is another by-product of inversion thinking. Challenges and difficult problems that seem to defy any solutions often overwhelm us as humans, leading to anxiety or fear. Anxiety and fear then make it harder to concentrate, which makes finding solutions for the problem even harder. Inversion thinking provides a workaround for this very situation. One acknowledges their fear or potential problems, and then begins to plan strategies to overcome them.
Modern psychology supports this idea. The concept of “defensive pessimism” suggests that by anticipating possible failures, individuals can prepare more effectively, reducing anxiety and improving performance. This is not about fostering a pessimistic outlook but about realistic preparation. When we consider what might go wrong, we can take steps to mitigate those risks, which in turn builds confidence and resilience.
It is for this reason that inversion thinking is now used commonly in behavioural psychology, especially in the area of interpersonal relationships. For example, what could be the reason that one’s relationship with a person of interest could deteriorate or spoil? The reasons can range from unnecessary judgments, fractured communications, loss of interest, etc. Thus, a list of scenarios that could go wrong emerges, and then the reverse is applied. How does one refrain from making unnecessary judgments? How does one communicate more clearly and consistently? How does one keep the spark alive? Applying these simple solutions can prevent interpersonal relationships from going sour.
In professional settings, inversion thinking can be particularly useful in project management and decision-making. By identifying potential failures in advance, teams can develop robust contingency plans, thus fostering a culture of proactivity and adaptability. This approach not only enhances problem-solving but also strengthens team resilience in the face of challenges.
Similarly, in the field of organizational behaviour, what could be reasons that can ruin a business or an organization? Potential issues could include inadequate promotions, stagnation in the product line or portfolio, or subpar customer service. Clarifying these scenarios and devising solutions for them can contribute to improved strategic planning. So, how do we apply inversion thinking? Inversion thinking is all about being counter-intuitive; therefore, (1) frame the problem. (2) Specify the intended result; (3) Reverse the result by identifying obstacles that could obstruct the achievement of the goal; (4) Formulate a strategy to steer clear of those difficulties.
Despite its benefits, Premeditatio Malorum has attracted its own body of criticism. Experts argue that the excessive focus on negative outcomes can also lead to depression and pessimism, which in turn can lead to inaction. The key is balance. Appreciate inversion thinking as a tool rather than a dominant mindset. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst is an age-old adage. The Stoics themselves cautioned against becoming too attached to external outcomes, emphasizing the importance of focusing on what is within our control. This nuanced approach can ensure that inversion thinking serves as a constructive exercise rather than a source of unnecessary worry.
In the modern world, where uncertainty is a constant, the wisdom of the Stoics remains relevant. Premeditatio malorum and its extension Inversion thinking is much more than a philosophical exercise. It can be used as a tool to manage the vagaries of everyday existence. Anticipating negative outcomes and preparing for them can help boost resilience. It teaches us that preparing for adversity allows us to live more fully and with greater peace of mind. As we cannot control the external world, we can control how we respond to it, which is our true strength. By practicing inversion thinking, we not only prepare for the worst but also cultivate a deeper appreciation for the present and the successes we achieve.
